Image credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
Translated by Pepe Latorre
The past tense was difficult for all prediction systems, and not only for the Giants and Twins. All of these tenes have temporary periods completed during the pilot season, both in the majors as in the minor, to generate the projections. In 2021 we will find that the previous campaign alone has 60 MLB games and none in the Minors. Eso conducts irremediably at intervals of greater congestion of its habitat. Not at all, on our part we will hope for complete times in the future! (sí, esto es una broma).
One of the most controversial features of the projections is that one sees that the time suelen predicts with more precision the time of a judge during the rest of the time that the real dismemberment of the judges has that the master is sufficient. This is a contradiction. It is clear that in the April finals Nadie actually created the .415 / .455 / .659 of Yermín Mercedes o in the effect of 6.29 of Luis Castillo. But one day in April, this type of atypical value stabilized. For Memorial Day, what is it that has a more indicative plot that will be the rest of its year with an algorithm that has a prediction during training? And for the Day of the Banner? And for the quarter of July? ¿Y para el parón del All-Star?
Decide to try PECOTA while responding to these questions before the 2021 deadline without precedent and difficulty predicting. If I want to go directly to the most important search results, then let me explain my methodology for a while.
I have limited my battles with 300 appearances on the plateau and launchers with 100 entries during the last campaign. The small samples conducive to larger atypical values. Compare the statistics accumulated by each player at the end of each month with their numbers for the rest of the year.
Descarté each digit (until the end of each month as for the rest of the year) when an asset is added to the 50 appearances on the board. For example, in April and Mayo excludes a Ronald Torreyes only two 44 appearances on the plateau during these months, and not July and August of Rhys Hoskins because only I read the 24 after 30 June. For the launchers, there is a minimum of ten entries launched, which means that Alex Manoah did not appear until June (without entries in April and May in May) and Joe Ross disappears from August (no entries have been released since August 10).
Elegi the OPS as my metric of battery and as much ERA as FIP for the launchers. There are correlations between the actions for the remainder of the years of the beaters and launchers in comparison with (1) PECOTA and (2) their numbers from the previous year. For example, here it is Justin Turner. Our PECOTA projection predicted to be an OPS of .815. In this table OPS is your OPS until the end of the month, ROS is your OPS during the rest of the time and Winner Indica cuál estuvo más cerca, el .815 de PECOTA o su total hasta la fecha (YTD).
Here we go to Nick Pivettawhich PECOTA projected at 3.82 ERA and 4.02 FIP.
Among the predecessors are the similar cases to Pivetta. Until the end of April, the correlation between PECOTA and the effect of the rest of the time was very good, 0.23. The correlation with FIP fue mayor, 0.41. But we will easily override the correlation between the year before the year and the rest of the year: 0.14 for ERA, 0.28 for FIP.
Pero la magia no duró más. During each period, the efficiency and the FIP of this year will have the highest number of predictors of the rest of the year than PECOTA. Although it is clear that the launchers are difficult to project in all modes. Its results depend on the size of the situation. A Astros launcher is playing at the center of his matches against opponents of the Western Division of the American League, teams that accumulate a combined OPS of .699. For another load, one of the Orioles is the one that has conjunctions that register a .764 OPS. An abridgment that begins badly the year can end in the bullpenbut it will be much better, while a relevant exit can be used to enter the rotation. Kolby Allard started the year with a decent return (3.15 of ERA and 3.07 of FIP in 10 games), lie “conversion” in short (5.40 of ERA and 5.69 FIP in 17 apertures). Garrett Richards step up to be a victim of regulation on the use of payday loans (5.22 of ERA and 5.03 of FIP in 22 apertures) and a very good bullpen bullpen (3.42 of ERA and 2.90 of FIP in 18 appearances). PECOTA does not know how many teams will launch a launcher (this is one of the reasons why I like our DRA, which is related to the opponents) or it will be on paper. In small words, the projections of the launchers are difficult. The additional and exclusive circulars of 2021 will be the most difficult hiccup.
For the battles, without embargo…
- Until the end of April, the correlation between the OPS of the rest of the period and the OPS of the year has been equal to 0.26. The correlation between the OPS of the rest of the time and the PECOTA de pretemporada fue of 0,51. Ganó PECOTA.
- May have final correlation between the OPS of the rest of the period and the OPS of the year up to the time of 0.32. The correlation between the OPS of the rest of the time and the PECOTA of pretemporue fue of 0.49. Ganó PECOTA.
- Until June, the correlation between the OPS of the rest of the season and the OPS of this year will be equal to 0.32. The correlation between the OPS of the rest of the time and the PECOTA de pretemporada fue of 0.44. Ganó PECOTA.
- Until July, the correlation between the OPS of the rest of the season and the OPS of this year has been fixed at 0.37. The correlation between the OPS of the rest of the time and the PECOTA de pretempora fue of 0.40. Ganó PECOTA.
- Until August, the correlation between the OPS of the rest of the period and the OPS of the year will be equal to 0.36. The correlation between the OPS of the rest of the time and the PECOTA de pretemporada fue of 0.35. PECOTA loss, but not by a significant margin.
Dicho de otra manera, from the commencement of the temporary period the posterior semesters in the parole of the All-Star, PECOTA predicts the greater the period of the benefactors during the remainder of the temporary period than the numbers from the previous year. There is one more year for the projections! And we use only projections of the time, not the ones that will be updated during the season. For the batsmen, at least, the opposite of the intuition is correct: the projections are a better predictor of the future that the real results have been well within the time frame. To the launchers, given the challenges of 2021, we will take an interrogation.
If your favorite player has problems in the April finals, it’s likely to get better this year. What do you think about the fact that your team is looking forward to the season that will kick off the season? This is the reason. If his fantasy team needed help in the offensive, he made an offer of the type that was not done well before Memorial Day, but he must have thought to pass on to the player of his team that is much better than his projection in June. Confía en PECOTA, no en tus sucios y mentirosos ojos.
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