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The second Covid wave is a complete economic recovery in India

The second Covid wave is a complete economic recovery in India

India’s second wave of Covid-19 is frightening hard-core consumers and threatening the country’s economic recovery as regional authorities impose new blockades and local coverage to slow the spread of the virus.

Together The case of India while overcoming last year’s pandemic and anti-vaccine shootout, officials are under intense pressure to take steps to reduce the growth, hospitalizations and deaths of new coronavirus infections.

But new cuts in business and public activity are at risk of damaging what would have been a strong economic rebound after one of the hardest contractions caused by the global pandemic last year.

This month the IMF has raised its growth forecast for India to 12.5% ​​this year. Gita Gopinath Fund chief economist has warned that the calculations were earlier than the “relatively worrying” final wave.

“The coming months will be critical as Covid’s new wave calls into question India’s immature recovery,” the Oxford Economics research team said in a statement, including a “tough blockade” including increased deaths and fake vaccination campaigns. the greatest threats to growth.

India reported more than 152,419 new infections on Saturday and recorded another 800 Covid-19 deaths. Patients are already in full hospital in the most affected cities.

In the face of the rise, Maharashtra, the home of the country’s financial capital Mumbai, ordered most of the non-essential business last week and ordered a tight weekend closure at least until late April. Several cities, including the capital New Delhi and the Bangalore IT Center, have set up nightclubs.

Many Indians fear that they will face tougher cuts in the future as they question whether service sector businesses can suffer another blow in the fight.

The famous Ritu Dalmia restaurant, which closed three of its six restaurants last year, said it was a “disaster”. The lunch business has been halved in four days, while a 22:00 night temperature in New Delhi is suppressing dinner demand.

“People don’t go out anymore,” he said. “There’s a huge panic. This year there will be a cleanup. How long can we last and how long can we last? “

Jammu’s Sahil Mahajan, who has a car dealership and furniture business among the family’s interests, said small customers have dropped significantly in recent weeks. “Any retail business is doing pretty badly,” he said.

India’s economic indicators improved significantly in January and February, with new cases falling by around 10,000 a day. But it is taking on more and more stress, as the index of business activity that has tracked Nomura has recorded the biggest drop in 12 months in the first week of April.

Economists do not expect a general national blockade like last year, which should alleviate long-term pain. Radhika Rao of DBS Bank said that limiting it to sectors like hospitality, rather than industrial activity or construction, would help.

Many hoped that the ambitious cases of vaccination in India would create a supportive climate to control new cases in order to achieve strong economic activity. But the spread has been a slow surprise.

Indian Serum Institute, India’s leading provider of vaccines for national expansion, has the capacity to produce about 2.4m doses per day. This will limit the rate of inoculation in a country of 1.4 billion unless New Delhi accepts the use of other owners.

Many migrant workers, traumatized after being stopped in cities blocked last year, have resumed cities like Mumbai and Delhi.

Gurfan Sheikh, who runs a small leather factory for a collective sold out in a large shack in Mumbai, said his two workers, both immigrants from across the country, have fled the city.

“I was fine ten days ago, I was earning enough to feed my family. We’ve had to close our stores since the lock was announced,” he said. “How are they going to do it [employees] if I can’t afford to live? “

Additional report by Andrea Rodrigues

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